An important aspect of looking at the world with new eyes is seeing what is important in data, especially political data. Too often there is a herd mentality in political news coverage, and with this comes an inability to put the latest data in a context of how this compares with the recent past. Often anchors and analysts overstate the false idea that Trump’s tactics of distraction and disruption are working as we move closer and closer to the mid-term elections.
Here are a half dozen reasons why I believe that Republicans are in a worse position in the political environment than they were in the 2018 elections when Democratic candidates did exceedingly well when the votes were all counted:
Trump’s job approval today is as bad (and in ways worse) than it was in 2018. On election day in 2018, Trump had a net disapproval rating of -9. His net approval rating today is -14. Though it being 5 points worse today seems like a small number, a President’s job approval rating is the single greatest determinant of likely election results in both mid-terms and presidential election. Every point worse makes it harder and harder for Republicans to retain the House.
Democratic candidates today have a major enthusiasm advantage over Republicans. And in mid-terms the enthusiasm advantage nearly always results in greater turnout advantage on election day. A very good proxy for majoring enthusiasm advantage is to look at the difference between voters giving Trump strongly approve versus those giving him strongly disapprove. Today Trump’s strong approval is 25% while his strong disapproval is 45%. In 2018 Trump’s strong approval was 31% while his strong disapproval was 45%.
Swing or Independent voters have turned overwhelmingly against Trump. His approval rating among independent voters is a net -30. A horrendous number. In 2018 Trump’s approval rating among Independent voters was a net -20.
For the past year, Democrats have led in nearly every poll on the generic ballot question of who voters would choose in an election. This is very similar to what happened in the run-up to the 2018 mid-terms. This lengthy period of retaining an advantage always leads to victory in the midterms.
There has been more than 40 special elections since the November 2024 general election, and in those results Democrats have over-performed by an average of 15%. In 2018, in the special elections in 2017, Democrats over-performed by an average of 10%. In 2022, there was no over-performance by either political party in special elections, and thus on election day there was a mix of results.
In 2018 even while Trump had a low job approval rating overall, his approval on the economy was +5, and this was true among independent voters as well. Today, the economy is the number one issue, and Trump has a net disapproval of -16. And among independent voters it is a net disapproval of -29. Again, horrendous numbers for an incumbent Republican Party.
So is there anything today giving Republicans an advantage in the midterms? Yes, but you have to look past every bit of polling data. The Republican advantage is in their attempts to game the system especially as regards the unprecedented mid-census redistricting they have done in places like Texas, as well as other states.
Republicans know full well that they are at an incredible disadvantage among voters today if the election was in any way close to fair. Hence that is why they are going out of their way to undermine our democracy through corrupt attempts at gaming the system.
Will this really help them when the environment is so badly against them? Time will tell, but what they may have done is made themselves more vulnerable in more districts by stretching their minority of voters too thin. A ten point partisan Republican district is no longer safe in this environment, and they have created far more ten point districts than they had before.
Yes, election day is more than a year off, and things can change along the way. But if you gave truth serum to Republican officials they would admit they are in serious trouble, and if they had to pick which side they would rather be, nearly every one would say they would choose the Democratic advantage.
Elections matter, and Democrats would be smart to keep their foot on the gas, and run a two-pronged campaign: one, emphasizing the negatives of Trump and the Republicans and their negative policy effects on American citizens; and two, putting forth a reform agenda saying how they would govern America differently with an eye towards reimagining institutions in the 21st century.
This gives me some hope
Thank you for the informative and positive piece. I find it incredibly annoying when total negativity shows up in a number of posts. I am not a Pollyanna but it is so important to maintain objectivity and seeing the positive as well as addressing the negative. History has many instances of people looking at what a disruption or bad situation can be turned around if only people would keep hope and be creative in fixing the imbalance.